Prediction Integrity · Resolution
Resolution Audit Trails
Make market resolution evidence verifiable. The resolution payload — outcome, resolver, evidence reference, rules hash, timestamp — is canonicalized, signed, and bound to the manifest of predictions it settles.
CertifiedData proves the record. DecisionLedger proves the process. For event markets, the resolution is where stakes are highest and where audit infrastructure matters most.
Why resolution audit trails
The resolution action determines who wins, who loses, and how much. Without a tamper-evident record of that action, the platform's resolution decisions are unilaterally revisable.
Resolution is the highest-stakes step
When a market resolves, settlement follows. Whoever controls the resolution decision controls the financial outcome. Without a signed, timestamped record of what was decided and what evidence was cited, the decision is unilaterally revisable.
Evidence references must outlast the news cycle
Resolution decisions cite external evidence — official announcements, third-party data feeds, regulatory filings. A signed resolution record captures the URL or hash of that evidence at the moment of decision, preserving the citation even if the source page later changes or disappears.
Rules versions matter at resolution time
Markets resolve under the rules that were in force when the market was created. The resolution record binds the rules_hash to the outcome, preventing post-hoc claims that 'the rules said something different' — the hash either matches what was published or it does not.
Disputes need machine-verifiable records
When a trader, regulator, or counterparty disputes a resolution, the first question is 'what exactly did the platform decide and on what basis?' A signed resolution record is the canonical answer — verifiable without platform access.
Resolution record payload
The resolution_record.v1 schema includes the outcome, the resolver, both the evidence URL and its hash, the rules hash, and a reference to the prediction manifest the resolution settles.
{
"artifact_type": "resolution_record",
"artifact_schema": "resolution_record.v1",
"source": "your-market-platform",
"market_id": "market_2026_general_outcome",
"resolved_outcome": "YES",
"resolved_at": "2026-05-14T22:30:00Z",
"resolver": "resolution-system:auto-v3",
"evidence_source": "https://official-source.example/announcement/2026-05-14",
"evidence_hash": "sha256:...",
"rules_hash": "sha256:...",
"linked_prediction_manifest": "cert_manifest_01j...",
"resolution_hash": "sha256:..."
}The signature covers the canonicalized record. Any change to resolved_outcome, evidence_source, evidence_hash, or rules_hash after issuance invalidates the signature.
Resolution flow
The platform stops accepting new bids/asks. The final pre-resolution state is captured in a market snapshot certificate so the resolution payload can reference it.
An automated resolver (e.g., an oracle) or human resolver records the outcome, the timestamp, and the evidence source. This is the structured resolution payload.
The evidence source — typically a URL — is fetched, hashed, and recorded. The evidence_hash makes the citation tamper-evident even if the source page later disappears.
The hash of the rules document in force when the market was created is included in the resolution payload. Verifiers can confirm the resolution applied the correct rules version.
The full resolution payload is canonicalized, hashed with SHA-256, and signed with Ed25519. The certificate is stored in the artifact registry and the public transparency log.
The resolution action is appended to the Decision Ledger as a structured event — including who resolved it, when, and a reference to the resolution certificate. The chain hash makes the event tamper-evident.
Resolver types
Resolution logic that reads from a trusted data feed (sports score API, financial data vendor, official announcement RSS). The resolver field records the oracle version; the evidence_source records the feed URL.
Multiple independent sources are queried and the outcome is determined by agreement. The resolution payload records each source separately so dissent is auditable.
A human reviewer determines the outcome based on evidence. The resolver field records the reviewer identity; the evidence_source records the materials cited. Manual resolution is slower but appropriate for ambiguous events.
Automated resolution by default, with manual override for edge cases. The resolution record captures both the automated result and the manual override, preserving the full decision history.
Claim boundary
- →The outcome value was set by the recorded resolver at the recorded timestamp
- →The evidence_source URL existed when the resolution was issued
- →The evidence_hash matches the content fetched at resolution time
- →The rules_hash matches the rules in force at market creation
- →The resolution record has not been silently altered since issuance
- →That the outcome is factually correct
- →That the resolver applied the rules correctly
- →That the evidence source is itself trustworthy or authoritative
- →That the resolution is legally binding in any jurisdiction
- →That the dispute process has been exhausted
Frequently asked questions
What is a resolution record?
A resolution record is a signed, structured artifact certifying how an event market was resolved. It contains the resolved outcome, the resolved_at timestamp, the resolver identity, an evidence_source reference, an evidence_hash, the rules_hash in force at market creation, and a link to the prediction manifest the resolution applies to. The full record is canonicalized and signed with Ed25519.
Why include both evidence_source and evidence_hash?
The evidence_source is the URL or identifier of the evidence used to resolve the market. The evidence_hash is the SHA-256 of the content fetched at resolution time. If the source URL later changes content, removes the page, or vanishes, the evidence_hash still proves what the resolver saw. The pair is stronger than either alone.
How does this relate to DecisionLedger?
CertifiedData signs the resolution record — the artifact. DecisionLedger logs the resolution event — the action. The certificate proves what was decided; the ledger entry proves who decided it, when, and what happened around it. Together they form a complete audit trail. The recurring phrase: CertifiedData proves the record, DecisionLedger proves the process.
Can multiple resolution records exist for the same market?
Yes — for example, if a market is initially resolved one way, then disputed, then re-resolved. Each resolution record is a separate signed artifact. The Decision Ledger chain captures the order: initial resolution, dispute event, reversal, new resolution. Verifiers can follow the chain to understand the full history.
Does CertifiedData arbitrate the resolution?
No. CertifiedData signs what you submit. The resolver — automated oracle, multi-source consensus, manual reviewer, or hybrid — is part of the platform's resolution logic. CertifiedData adds the tamper-evident binding so the outcome of that logic survives review.
Machine-readable summary
{
"concept": "Resolution audit trail",
"concept_type": "resolution-record-primitive",
"canonical_url": "https://certifieddata.io/prediction-integrity/resolution-audit-trails",
"parent_concept": "Prediction Integrity",
"related_concepts": [
"Market snapshots",
"Daily prediction manifest",
"Decision Ledger",
"Prediction market auditability"
],
"artifact_schema": "resolution_record.v1",
"certificate_type": "GENESIS",
"signing_algorithm": "Ed25519",
"hash_algorithm": "SHA-256 (RFC 8785 canonicalized)",
"payload_fields": [
"artifact_type",
"artifact_schema",
"source",
"market_id",
"resolved_outcome",
"resolved_at",
"resolver",
"evidence_source",
"evidence_hash",
"rules_hash",
"linked_prediction_manifest",
"resolution_hash"
],
"resolver_types": [
"automated_oracle",
"multi_source_consensus",
"manual_review",
"hybrid"
],
"companion_artifact": "DecisionLedger resolution event",
"positioning": "CertifiedData proves the resolution record. DecisionLedger proves the resolution process."
}Make every resolution verifiable
Pair resolution record certification with the Decision Ledger event log to create a complete settlement audit trail.